Hello folks,
The midway point of the five part mini-series takes in the Premier League, which begins this weekend. The title race for the upcoming season could be one of the most open and exciting for many years, though not for reasons Richard Scudamore would appreciate. Having seen its domestic champions outclassed in the Champions League final (all that hyperbole about Michael Carrick’s ability to dictate a game’s tempo seems rather foolish when seeing him share the same pitch as Xavi and Iniesta, doesn’t it?), the EPL has also lost its best player to La Liga (along with a couple of more than able Spaniards from Anfield) and looks at risk of losing its Best League In The World™ tag to Iberia; certainly, both Real and Barça look better bets for next season’s Champions League.
Bizarrely for a league that seems, for aeons, to have been dominated by a so-called “Big Four”, the talking point of the English close season has arguably been the influx of players at the only European club that can compete with Real Madrid’s spending power, Manchester City. In spite of all the money that has been spent at City over the summer (£93m at last count, not to mention the £47m spent in last January’s transfer window), it’s hard to envisage City cracking the top four, at least this season. Principally, this is because, while City are blessed with limitless transfer funds, they have yet to build up the footballing prestige required to entice the very best footballers to Eastlands (most of this summer’s marquis signings have been made by Real Madrid), so City have largely been restricted to second tier signings; the one possible exception to this rule would perhaps be the signing of Carlos Tévez from Manchester United, though he will have to make a significantly greater goalscoring contribution this season than he did at United last season. Meanwhile, John Terry’s rejection of a move to Eastlands, and Everton’s refusal to play ball over the mooted transfer of Joleon Lescott, mean that the defensive problems that afflicted City last season (particularly at centre-back) have remained largely unresolved; with Richard Dunne seemingly in terminal decline, and Micah Richards still more of an athlete than a footballer, Kolo Touré alone won’t solve City’s central defensive woes. Mark Hughes will also have to find a way of keeping all his strikers happy, while some of the transfer moves are frankly bizarre (Emmanuel Adebayor often needs several chances to score one goal, while, with the exception of his 2007/08 campaign with Blackburn, Roque Santa Cruz’s goalscoring record in European club football is appalling). The squad still looks considerably stronger than last season, though, and a Europa League slot should be theirs for the taking (they may even be a good bet to qualify for the Champions League next season, especially if Arsenal continue to stagnate).
As for the Big Four themselves, selecting a definitive favourite is difficult, given that all four sides look weaker than last season. The most significant losses have been at the champions, Manchester United, who, in addition to losing Tévez to Man City, have lost the league’s undisputed best player (though not necessarily its most modest), Cristiano Ronaldo. The loss of Ronaldo’s goals is likely to prove more problematic for United than most of their fans are prepared to concede; Ronaldo, from a wide right position, has arguably been United’s principal goal threat for the last three seasons, and often provided them with decisive goals in games where they struggled to break the opposition down. For all Antonio Valencia’s undoubted qualities, he is unlikely to provide the same kind of goal return. The expected switch from a fluid 4-3-3 system to a more orthodox 4-4-2 may see Wayne Rooney being made the focal point of the attack, but he will have to play with much greater tactical discipline than he has done at any point in the past; too often, both at United and previously at Everton, he played like a schoolboy on a sugar rush, darting about all corners of the pitch and ostensibly trying to do everything, rather than sticking to areas of the pitch where he is likely to be most devastating. The continued malaise of serial oxygen waster Dimitar Berbatov should also alarm United fans, especially given the comedy signing of over-the-hill Newcastle dud Michael Owen (a man who even Ferguson admitted can only play “every 10 days”), while a lot more will be required of both Nani and Anderson as both Giggs and Scholes get older and creakier. If United are to succesfully defend their title, the onus will be on the defence, and particular centre-backs Nemanja Vidić and Rio Ferdinand, remaining as watertight as last season; fine against the league’s less dynamic attacks, but a disaster waiting to happen against any forward line with pace (as both Fernando Torres and Samuel Eto’o amply demonstrated last season).
In spite of all this, United may still end up winning the league almost by default. The loss of Xabi Alonso at Liverpool in itself needn’t necessarily weaken their title push; his replacement, Roma’s Alberto Aquilani, may not possess as exquisite a passing game as Alonso but is arguably much more direct and offers a much greater threat of goals from midfield, while also having no little technical ability himself. The purchase of Glen Johnson also looks astute, and his link-up play with Dirk Kuyt should offer Liverpool the same kind of potency from the wide right position as Albert Riera and Fábio Aurélio/Emiliano Insúa offered on the left of the Liverpool attack last season. However, much will again rest on Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres remaining fit for the whole season; this is particularly pressing in the case of Torres, as the reserve forward options leave a bit to be desired (the likes of David N’Gog, Dani Pacheco and Krisztian Németh all look promising but are probably still too green to make much of an impact this season, Ryan Babel has appalling close control and Andriy Voronin is, well, Andriy Voronin). In addition, for all that Yossi Benayoun and Dirk Kuyt showed greatly improved form last season, the high number of draws recorded last season emphasises the continuing need for a game opening playmaker type; in other words, a David Silva or David Silva-esque player (the fact that Silva now looks likely to stay at Valencia is immensely frustrating as a Liverpool fan). The early season injuries to all of the first choice centre-backs, and the absence of Aquilani for the first eight weeks of the season as part of rehabilitation from knee surgery (forcing Liverpool to deploy the as yet unconvincing Lucas) are unlikely to help, either. For all the potential problems, however, Torres and Gerrard remain world-class players and Liverpool should again run United close.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have retained all the key members of last season’s squad, including keeping hold of John Terry in the face of City’s well-documented interest. Unfortunately, most of the squad’s problems from last year have also been retained; the squad remains too old, with too many prominent members (notably the likes of Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard, Michael Ballack and Nicolas Anelka) being 30 years or older. The side’s lack of width has only partially been addressed by the admittedly impressive signing of Yuri Zhirkov (and, arguably, the wrong flank has had money spent on it this summer), while the attack is still worryingly dependent on the goals and all-round attacking play of Drogba. Carlo Ancelotti’s record of one league title in eight seasons at Milan, not to mention his laissez-faire approach to club discipline (one of the reasons behind Milan’s recent decline), hardly inspires confidence, either. That said, a title tilt is more than possible if Drogba stays fit and firing for a whole season. As for Arsenal, familiar woes are likely to afflict them again this season. The range of attacking options in the squad is as good as any in the league; the prospect of having Andrey Arshavin available for a whole season is especially exciting. However, the spine of the side still looks dangerously fragile; Thomas Vermaelen looks an interesting prospect at centre-back, but will undoubtedly need time to adjust to the tempo of the Premier League. He certainly can’t be expected to shore up Arsenal’s defence on his own which, given Touré’s departure, Eboué’s likely exit and the continuing incompetence of William Gallas and Mickaël Silvestre, might be required of him. Wenger’s dogmatic refusal to buy a defensive midfielder, meanwhile, will mean that, not only will Arsenal get overrun in midfield too often this season, but the likes of Cesc, Arshavin and Samir Nasri will not get the protection they need to really flourish. Arsenal should still qualify for the Champions League this season, but future stints in Europe’s top club competition may be numbered without the necessary spinal adjustments.
In terms of the Europa League places, Manchester City, as discussed previously, have probably spent their way to securing one of them, but what of the other two spots? Everton’s squad remains perilously thin, but the starting XI is undoubtedly strong, particularly in midfield, where the likes of Marouane Fellaini and Steven Pienaar will be rejoined by Mikel Arteta, the side’s attacking fulcrum who returns from injury. The extension of Jô’s loan contract by a further twelve months should also give the attack greater potency, a situation that can only be improved by the return of Yakubu from a spell on the treatment table. Spurs fans won’t forgive me for saying this, but their side shares many of the same problems as those of their near (but not dear) neighbours Arsenal; namely, that while the attack is blessed with a plethora of talent, the side has too soft an underbelly to trouble the Top Four. The centre of the defence is a particular problem at White Hart Lane; while the signing of Sébastien Bassong (one of the few players to impress at Newcastle last season) looks canny, managing to keep the notoriously knack-prone Ledley King and Jonathan Woodgate fit for a whole season is a big ask, and while that’s the case they’re always likely to concede goals. Having said that, the impressive capture of Wilson Palacios from Wigan last January has at least given Spurs a ball winning, physical presence in central midfield, which gave Luka Modrić a platform to showcase his undoubted talents in the second half of last season, and which should allow him to do so again this season. Thus, of the usual candidates for the Europa League slots, the one most likely to miss out this season is Aston Villa, who suffered a dreadful run of form during the second half of last season (coinciding neatly with Martin Laursen’s enforced retirement after persistent injury woes) and have also lost their midfield metronome Gareth Barry to Man City. So far, new signings have been conspicuous by their absence, and while the signing of Stewart Downing should relieve Ashley Young of some of the side’s creative burden, the lack of a replacement for Barry or any defensive reinforcements (which were arguably needed last summer, even when Laursen was a member of the playing staff) are major causes for concern; fail to address them before the transfer window slams shut, and European qualification is likely to prove too onerous a task.
While the title race might be impossible to predict, the relegation battle looks somewhat easier to read. After last season’s appalling run from January onwards, where they were only bailed out by the greater incompetence of Newcastle, Middlesbrough and West Brom, Hull must surely be a shoo-in for relegation this season; the loan signing of Jozy Altidore won’t in itself cure the side of its striking ills, while the side looks short of pace and creativity in midfield (both George Boateng and Nick Barmby have long since lost their pace and guile, while Barcelona and Man City fans will testify to Geovanni’s chronic inability to consistently perform in the role of midfield playmaker). Portsmouth, as a result of massive debts racked up through overspending under previous owner Sacha Gaydamak, have had to sell virtually an entire side over the last year or so, with further sales possible even if Sulaiman Al-Fahim completes his takeover before the close of the transfer window (Sylvain Distin looks likely to leave before the end of August, while Niko Kranjčar may join him if Pompey decide to cash in before he runs down his contract); meanwhile, their bargain-basement acquisitions (Steve Finnan and Aaron Mokoena on free transfers, plus the loan arrival of Lyon flop Frédéric Piquionne) hardly inspire confidence. Of the promoted sides, Wolves should have sufficient goal threat (notably in the form of Sylvan Ebanks-Blake) to survive, while Birmingham should be solid enough defensively to stay up (though watching their dour brand of football may cause neutral spectators to start blaeeding from the eyes). Unfortunately, this will probably mean that Burnley, in spite of their venerable playing style and their impressive manager Owen Coyle, are likely to be this season’s West Brom, in that the forwards are unlikely to score as many goals in the Premier League as they did in the Championship, while the defence is far too porous to prevent them conceding hatfuls in the top division (this is a side after all who, despite finishing fifth, boasted the 18th worst defence in the Championship last season).
Well, in the words of Porky Pig, that’s all folks, but before I go, some predictions for the season ahead: